Insights October 2023

Commodity overview

• Recent flooding and heavy rainfall across East Gippsland may impact vegetable supply across Victoria. Production in the region is led by leafy vegetables, brassicas and sweet corn. Beans and peas are also produced in the region.
• Almond sales remain near record levels following the implementation of the trade agreement with India. Meanwhile, the rate of new almond plantings is continuing decline amidst low global almond prices.

Fruit

Mango harvest had continued across Darwin with volumes sent to market continuing to rise. The Australian Mango Industry Association have estimated 231,000 trays were sent to market last week. Volumes will continue rising throughout October. Prices are set to continue to ease as supply increases. However, prices will remain higher than last season due to lower production. This is especially the case across key production areas in Queensland where a warm winter impacted flowering.

The USDA have released updated production estimates for Australia’s stone fruit crop. Output across all major varieties is forecast to rise in 2023/24. Last season’s output was impacted by unseasonably wet weather and labour shortages. Cherry and peach/nectarine production is forecast to increase by 18 and 13 per cent. Heavy rainfall and flooding across the Gippsland and parts of Victoria may see quality downgrades, though overall output is unlikely to be impacted substantially.

Vegetables

Recent flooding and heavy rainfall across East Gippsland may have an impact on vegetable supply and quality across Victoria. How substantial the impact is will depend upon the magnitude of the flooding. The region typically accounts for over 20 per cent of Victorian vegetable production. Production in the region is led by leafy vegetables, brassicas, and sweet corn. Beans and peas are also produced widely in the region. It may be some time before the extent of the impact is known with the busiest harvest times for key vegetable crops taking place in November. We expect prices will begin to rise throughout October with supply chains out of the region also impacted. Broccoli prices are currently below average amidst strong supply across the east coast. Brassica prices will likely now begin to lift in response.

Nuts

News that efforts to eradicate the varroa mite have now switched to a management approach has been welcomed by the peak almond industry body. The eradication approach was becoming increasingly unviable as the mite continued to spread. Over $100 million had been spent on the eradication effort so far. Meanwhile, Australian almond sales for this season are tracking at record levels for the 2023/24 season. Sales to India have more than doubled compared to the same period last season. This is on the back of the Interim Free Trade Agreement which removed large tariffs. The strong sales figures come despite the 2023 crop being down 30 per cent compared to the prior season. Large stocks have helped to offset this decline, though a drop off in sales is expect

ed as stocks dwindle coming into 2024.  Despite strong sales, the rate of new almond plantings is continuing to decline amidst low almond global prices.

* The Tropical Fruit Index includes bananas, mangoes, papaws, passionfruit and pineapples
** The Bulb Vegetable Index includes onions, garlic, fennel, leeks and shallots.
Sources: Ausmarket Consultants, Rural Bank