Insights June 2023

Commodity overview

• Hass avocado harvest is now well underway across key production areas in Queensland.  Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia will see volumes pick up in July.
• Strong global macadamia production has seen prices drop to a 10-year low, though prices have recently stabilised.

June will see increased volumes of citrus coming to market. Mandarin harvest across Queensland and oranges picking across the Riverland and Sunraysia is now well underway. A predicted El Niño would result in drier conditions but would also reduce the chance of damaging rainfall events. High water storages are also ensuring water prices remain low which is benefiting irrigated crops.

Fruit

Australian citrus season is well underway. Mandarins are being harvested in Queensland with volumes coming in around between 20-30 per cent above last season. Naval oranges are also being picked in Sunraysia, with volumes set to peak in August. Quality looks good amidst favourable weather over the first few months of 2023. Improved labour supply has also helped to ensure crops are harvested in a timely manner compared to the past couple of seasons. This is driven by increased numbers of backpacker and Pacific Island seasonal workers. Despite the improved supply, labour costs remain high which is weighing on margins.

Hass avocado season is well underway across key production areas in Queensland. Victoria, New South Wales and Western Australia will see volumes pick up from July. Wholesale avocado prices have now fallen from $3.84/kg to $2.64/kg. National production is expected to come in slightly below last season’s record, though a general oversupply on the domestic market is still expected. This will keep prices hovering between the $2-3/kg range.

Vegetables

Tomato producers are now moving into the back half of the peak harvest period. Growers on the east coast have encountered difficult conditions. Hailstorms and flooding events reduced the volume of tomatoes available across the autumn months impacting supply. South Australian tomato producers are also dealing with a later season, though volumes appear to be above average across the state. Broccoli is starting to see increased availability and lower prices at the checkout with the height harvest underway in Queensland. Wholesale prices are now sitting around $2.11/kg and should continue easing over the winter period.   

Nuts

A revised macadamia crop forecast is due for release this month. Record production of 60,000 tonnes (in shell) was forecast earlier this year amidst the continued maturation of new plantings. Strong global production has seen macadamia prices drop to a ten year low globally, though have stabilised over the last few months.

* The average avocado price includes Shepard and Hass avocados
** The edible flower index includes broccoli, cauliflower and artichokes
Sources: Ausmarket Consultants, Rural Bank