With a lack of any major economic data releases, the first of three US Presidential debates took a lot of the focus for markets last week, with a CNN poll indicating that Democrat Hillary Clinton was a clear winner (62% to Donald Trump’s 27%). Reaction was slightly “risk-on” as Trump is largely regarded as a market negative.
However, debate victories are not necessarily reflective of winners. In the 2012 Presidential race, only 20% of voters polled by Gallup believed President Barack Obama had won his first debate with Romney who got 72%. – as As for the subsequent victor, many now ask, Mit who? No doubt markets will be sensitive to the next two debates and the batch of polls that follow.
The data calendar picks up once again this week and we also have another monthly RBA board meeting to consider what to do with rates. The market is pricing almost no chance (less than 5% probability) of a rate cut this Tuesday, but the meeting will gain some added attention as it is the first meeting for Phillip Lowe as the new Governor.
Current implied cash rate pricing from interbank bill futures