Insights September 2024

Commodity Overview

• Early season mango harvest is underway in parts of the Northern Territory. Higher volumes won’t hit the market until late September.
• An unseasonably warm August has accelerated the development of winter vegetable crops. September and October are likely to see increased vegetable availability and lower pricing as a result.

Fruit

The USDA have released updated stone fruit production forecasts for the 2024/25 season. Above average rainfall across summer had an impact on quality and quantity of stonefruit harvested in the 2023/24 season. More favourable seasonal conditions and good chill hours across winter will drive production higher in 2024/25 according to the report. Quality should also hold up well, assuming average to below average rainfall over harvest. At a varietal level, the USDA have forecast cherry production will lift to 20,000 tonnes. This is an 8 per cent lift from 2023/24 and 17 per cent above the five-year average. Peach and nectarine production is forecast to increase by 6 per cent. Assuming good quality, this should provide some support for export demand following a record year of exports in 2023/24. Recent inclement weather across regions of Tasmania and Victoria may have had a negative impact on crops over the last week.

Early season mango harvest is underway in parts of the Northern Territory with small volumes coming to market. Just 24,000 trays have been dispatched from Darwin so far. This lags well behind than previous seasons. Harvest across the region will kick off in earnest from late September. The Australian Mango Industry Association has released their initial forecasts for Darwin. In 2024/25, 2.4 million trays are expected to be dispatched. This is up from 2.1 million last season. Early season wholesale KP mango prices out of the Northern Territory are currently 17 per cent below the same time last season.

Avocado prices continued to lift throughout August as Queensland volumes began to drop off. Queensland Hass avocado prices are now sitting at a three-year decile 7.6. The Western Australia Hass avocado season will peak throughout September and October which will see retail avocados move back below $2 each in late September. Avocados continue to see strong growth in consumer buying. The number of households buying avocadoes lifted 2 per cent year-on-year to 76 per cent. This was accompanied by a 23.6 per cent lift year-on-year in purchase volume according to Nielsen market data. Gaining market access into the lucrative Chinese market remains a key industry goal at present.

A flush of Cavandish bananas have also begun to hit markets this week following warm Queensland weather. This follows limited availability across much of August. Wholesale Cavandish banana prices lifted to $3.28/kg as a result. This was a 58 per cent lift on August 2023. High volumes will be seen across next few weeks with prices expected to decline over this period.

Vegetables

An unseasonably warm August has accelerated the development of winter vegetable crops. September and October are likely to see increased availability of cauliflower, broccoli, peas and zucchini as a result. The excess volumes coming to market are likely to result in a broad decline in vegetable prices across September. Tomato producers in South Australia have received the news that the tomato brown rugose fruit virus has been detected in the Adelaide Plains. This will limit sales of South Australian tomatoes into other states. South Australia typically produces around 18 per cent of Australia’s tomato output. This will see additional price volatility over coming months as a result. It may see additional volumes on South Australian market shelves while other regions may see reduced availability. Gourmet tomato prices out of South Australia are currently sitting almost unchanged year-on-year.

Nuts

Varroa mite has been detected in the key almond production region of Sunraysia for the first time. No quarantine efforts will be undertaken as the pest in now being managed rather than eradicated. Exports of almonds are tracking at a record pace following a record harvest earlier this year. The Almond Board of Australia will announce final seasonal harvest figures over the coming week. Fantastic quality is driving strong demand from China while a lower exchange rate with the US dollar is also proving beneficial, helping to lift prices. Growers are in a much better position as a result. The Almond Board have also revealed that almond plantings have begun to slow. The overall planted area increased 2.9 per cent during 2023/24 to 64,192 hectares. Sunraysia remained the largest production region. The nonpareil variety remains almost 50 per cent of all plantings, though self-pollinating varieties are becoming more prevalent following the varroa mite outbreak and the rising cost of pollination.

*Tropical fruit index includes bananas, mangoes, passionfruit, pineapples and pawpaws
Sources: Ausmarket Consultants, Rural Bank