Insights November 2024

Commodity Overview

• Mango harvest is now under way across key QLD production regions of Bowen and Burdekin. The region has been forecast to send 1.4 million trays to market this season, well up from last season’s 984 thousand. 
• Australian table grape production will rise to 230,000 million tonnes in 2024/25 according to the USDA. This would total the second highest production on record.

The ongoing federal government review of the Working Holiday Maker visa program has drawn significant interest from the horticultural industry. This follows Australia's trade agreement with the UK which has already dropped the remote and regional work requirement for UK visa holders. Further changes to regional work requirements could potentially exacerbate seasonal worker shortages. Backpackers typically contribute up to 50 per cent of the workforce during peak harvest periods. The ongoing shift in the makeup of seasonal labour has kept the cost of seasonal labour elevated. This will remain the case with the Pacific Island Labour Mobility scheme an increasingly common alternative to backpackers despite the higher associated costs.

Fruit

Mango harvest has continued at pace in October with the number of trays being sent to market peaking in mid-October at almost 600,000. Total season output is forecast to hit 5.23 million trays.  Volumes being sent to market remain well above the same time last year. The 2023 season was impacted by poor yields out of Kununurra and Katherine in particular. The same cannot be said this year with Kununurra on track to produce almost triple the number of mangoes compared to last season. Katherine should also see an almost 40 per cent increase in the number of trays being sent to market according to the Australian Mango Industry Association.

Harvest across Darwin is now essentially complete. Kununurra and Katherine will continue through into late November. Meanwhile picking is now under way across key Queensland production regions of Bowen and Burdekin. Early trays being sent to market from the region started in October. The region has been forecast to send 1.4 million trays to market this season, well up from last season’s 984 thousand.  Kensington Pride mangoes out of the Northern Territory have seen prices drop by 19 per cent month on month. This is due to the increased volumes hitting the market with prices now well below average as a result.  KP mangoes will remain the dominant variety in November. Although Calypso and Honey Gold varieties will see increased availability as November progresses.

Source: Ausmarket Consultants

The USDA’s latest Fresh Deciduous Fruit report has forecast Australian table grape production will rise to 230,000 mt in 2024/25. This would be the second highest production on record and a significant increase from the 195,000 mt produced last season. Elevated production estimates are driven by strong bud burst following high cold chill accumulation and warmer maximum temperatures in recent months. The prospect of favourable seasonal conditions throughout summer is driving strong quality expectations. This will prove favourable from a demand perspective. Exports are anticipated to reach 135,000 mt, the third highest level on record. Ample production will also drive a lift in domestic consumption according to the latest report. Volumes are now coming out of Emerald in central Queensland with harvest to kick off in Carnarvon in early November. Meanwhile South Australian wine grape production will be impacted this year following frost damage to vineyards across the Riverland in September.

Source: Australian Table Grape Association, BOM and USDA

Source: Australian Table Grape Association, BOM and USDA

Vegetables

The price of staple vegetables has remained subdued through October. This trend is expected to continue into November. Production of onions and potatoes will begin to diverge from December which will start to drive contrasting price moves. Peak onion season is about to kick off in South Australia, the largest production state. This will keep prices below average across summer. Wholesale brown onion prices are currently average at $1.40/kg. Meanwhile, potato volumes will remain elevated into November before declining in December as harvest across South Australia and Victoria begins to slow. Tasmania has already seen a slowing of volumes into November. Wholesale unwashed white potatoes prices are currently at an average of $1.00/kg, down from the three-year average of $1.40/kg.

Sources: Ausmarket Consultants, Rural Bank

Nuts

The Almond Board of Australia’s latest Position Report revealed that strong export demand from China and India have driven record sales volumes of Australian almonds so far this marketing year (Mar – Feb). Exports into China are up 93 per cent on the same time last year. Meanwhile, Indian volumes are almost on par with last year’s record season. This strong export demand is a result of the fantastic quality following a dry season. Key export competitors in Türkiye, Spain and the US are seeing nut quality impacted by poor weather boosting demand for Aussie product. In a further boost for growers almond prices have also lifted, aiding margins. Unfortunately, frost events across key growing regions during September have impacted almond trees during flowering. This may drive reduced yields in these regions during the coming season.