Insights June 2021
Insights June 2021
- A lack of domestic demand and the ongoing seasonal labour shortage will provide challenges for citrus producers.
- The supply of bananas declined over the past two months, pushing prices higher.
- Carrot production will begin to pick up over the coming months putting downward pressure on prices.
Citrus harvest has now begun with most growers expecting a strong season. Navel oranges, mandarins and lemons are now in season with harvest underway from Queensland to Victoria. The calm and mild summer has helped to ensure fruit quality and production remain high. Despite this, growers are facing a challenging period over the coming harvest months. Queensland growers have reported a lack of domestic demand and struggles sourcing labour. These issues have unfortunately delayed harvest for many growers. The later harvest has caused northern growers to complete with other regions, leading to an oversupply in the market. This will drive citrus prices lower over the short to medium term. Prices are currently sitting 27 per cent above their three-year average.
Inclement weather across Queensland has adversely affected banana supply. This has put significant pressure on prices which are currently sitting 82 per cent above the corresponding period last year. Cooler conditions over the coming month are forecast to further impact banana production. This impact on production may push banana prices even higher in the short term.
Vegetables and Nuts
Australian carrot production will begin to pick up throughout the winter months. Extra supply coupled with flat domestic demand should see prices decline over the short term. Export demand remains on a par with 2019 and well above 2020 levels, despite increased shipping costs. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia remain the largest importers of Australian carrots.
Strong almond production has again been forecast throughout California, the world largest producer. This strong supply will see prices soften. It is forecast that prices may fall by as much as five per cent over the short to medium term. Ongoing export demand will offer price support for almonds over the long term. Further deterioration in seasonal condition would also likely alter almond price forecasts.
* tropical fruit includes mangoes, bananas, paw paw, passionfruit and pineapples.
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Rural Bank and Ausmarket Consultants.