Insights February 2025

February summary on horticulture

• Harvest of this year’s almond crop is now underway with producers looking ahead to a strong 2025 season. The Almond Board of Australia’s  annual crop estimate was released in early February. The current Australian almond crop estimate has come in at 155,531 tonnes (kernel weight equivalent) which is above average. The industry is also benefiting from strong global pricing and record export demand. A very timely factor at play remains the ongoing 25% retaliatory import tariffs that China placed on US in 2018. This remains in place and continues to keep Chinese demand for Australian almonds high.
• From a broader horticultural perspective, domestic demand remains restricted. This is a result of cost-of-living pressures which continue to impact consumers. This can be seen with avocados where demand remains under a cloud following months of elevated pricing. The early Shepard avocados out of Queensland are due to start hitting the market in late February. This will see prices for avocados likely return back towards the more typical $2 per avocado. However, on positive new for fruit growers more broadly, export demand remains near record levels. The seasonal Chinese New Year period has boosted demand for stone fruit. Although Chile are becoming an increasingly tough competitor from a quality standpoint.
• Weatherwise, a late wet season and flood events across Far North Queensland is impacting fruit supply. This is in part due to significant infrastructure damage across the region. This will likely see the price of bananas lift later in the month and into March.

Download the full update from Sean Hickey, Bendigo Bank Senior Agricultural Analyst