Insights August 2024

Commodity Overview

• Australian table grape producers will benefit from expanded market access into Japan. Exports into the Asian nation are expected to lift from $30 million to $50 million over the coming years as a result.
• Potato planting is now coming to an end in South Australia. Average yields are expected following decent June and July rainfall across key regions.

Hort Innovation have released updated consumption figures detailing household buying across fruit and vegetable sectors. Overall volumes purchased across both fruit and vegetables increased marginally year-on-year. This marginal increase lagged population growth which remains a concern. Meanwhile, improved vegetable supply has driven prices lower. Hort Innovation found that average prices declined across seven of the top ten vegetables purchased. This includes tomatoes, cucumbers, broccoli, capsicum, lettuce, carrots and herbs. The lower prices flowed through into increased consumer purchases at a retail level. Conversely, the report found fruit prices were up on average four per cent year-on-year. The increased prices were a result of mixed growing conditions depending upon the region.

Fruit

Australian table grape producers are celebrating expanded market access into Japan. Australia can now export more than 130 varieties into Japan. Exporters have previously only had clearance to export three varieties of table grapes. These varieties were Crimson Seedless, Red Globe and Thompson Seedless. This expanded market access is expected to lift the value of the Japanese market from $30 million to $50 million over the next few years. In a further boost for the industry the Australian Table Grape Association will receive another five years of market access support to further bolster industry sustainability and export efficiency. This comes on the back of a near record production season, though exports have dropped year-on-year amidst strong competition from Chile and Peru. Quality issues with Crimson Seedless Red Grapes have also affected Chinese demand. Exports to China have dropped by 26 per cent for the year-to-date as a result. Though a lift in prices has provided some respite for producers.

Citrus growers have had a strong season so far. Above average production across most varieties have been met with strong export demand. This is partially a result of the great quality seen across most regions. The delayed citrus seasons seen across key export competitors in South Africa and Peru has also proven beneficial. Exports are currently tracking 36 per cent higher year-to-date. Wholesale Navel orange prices out of Victoria are currently sitting at a 7.1 decile on the back of this strong demand. Orange volumes will peak at the end of August. This will likely see prices ease back further from current levels.

Vegetables

Planting of potatoes is now back underway across South Australia following a successful harvest earlier this year. The Adelaide Plains saw a dry period over planting while the Riverland, Mallee and Southeast regions of the state got going a fortnight ago. Decent rainfall totals across the state over July will provide a decent soil moisture base for crops to work off. This is an important improvement from where soil moisture totals were sitting at the start of June. While most growers are contracted, those selling into wholesale markets have seen prices ease. Washed White potatoes prices out of South Australia are currently over 13 per cent lower year-on-year. Asparagus volumes out of Victoria have begun to pick up over August, while broccoli is also coming into season. This will see prices begin to ease following a spike in July amidst a seasonal low in availability.

Nuts

Macadamia harvest has continued across southeast Queensland and into northern New South Wales. Most regions should be finished up by September. Australian macadamia output for the 2024 season is estimated at almost 51,000 tonnes in shell by the industry body. This is in sharp contrast to last year’s challenging season where a crop of just 48,400 tonnes in-shell was produced. Unfortunately, prolonged hot conditions followed by rainfall impacted yields ahead of harvest. This saw forecasts cut from initial estimates of 56,000 tonnes. Macadamia prices have lifted in 2024 with growers receiving seeing an increase of up to 50 per cent. This is off a noticeably low base and does remain broadly unsustainable over the long term.

* Citrus price index includes oranges, limes, lemons, and mandarins
**Root vegetable index includes potatoes, carrots, beetroot, parsnips and swedes.
Sources: Ausmarket Consultants, Rural Bank