Insights February 2025

February summary on cropping

• The 2024/25 winter crop harvest is complete. Final production hit about 57.7 million tonnes, which is more than expected. Western Australia and New South Wales led national output, making up 71 percent of total production. This growth balanced big drops in South Australia and Victoria. There, production is at its lowest since the 2018/19 drought.
• East Coast supply has remained balanced since harvest, with northern domestic end users well supplied. Meanwhile, a slow start to the export program has prevented excessive pressure on southern markets. However, as we progress through Q2 of the marketing year, early signs indicate a shift in supply and demand fundamentals.
• Barley shipments from Western Australia have moved quickly. The state exported 2.6 million tonnes of barley from October to January, making up 77 percent of the national total. The strong pace will continue into Q2. Shipping stem data shows 2.0 million tonnes are scheduled for February and March. Demand is now moving to the eastern states as traders find it harder to secure stock in Western Australia. The increased demand reflected in rising prices in recent weeks.
• Wheat markets remain in a holding pattern as we have not seen the same export demand for barley. Domestic markets also remain well supplied. This is thanks to record crops from northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, as we move through the early part of 2025, we should see export demand pick up as competitive Australian pricing, tightening global wheat stocks and renewed buying interest from key markets drive stronger trade flows in the coming months.

Download the full update from Rod Baker, Bendigo Bank Agricultural Analyst