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Insights October 2024

7 October 2024 |Carbon & climate

Insights October 2024

7 October 2024 |Carbon & climate

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Neutral

The Bureau of Meteorology’s current information shows some changes in ENSO conditions are underway. The changes are not sufficiently big for a clear direction to be identified. It also remains to be seen whether these conditions will be sustained.

Both sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and atmospheric patterns are within ENSO-neutral thresholds. Some atmospheric indicators such as pressure, cloud and trade wind patterns over the Pacific have been more La Niña-like over the past few weeks. It is possible a La Niña may develop in coming months. If it does develop, it is forecast to be relatively weak and short-lived. The Bureau of Meteorology suggests sea surface temperatures are likely to remain within the ENSO-neutral range throughout the forecast period to February 2025.

There are three key climate drivers affecting medium term weather in Australia, in addition to the ENSO oscillation. These are the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Southern Annular Mode, and the Madden–Julian Oscillation.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The IOD is a circulation in which air rises over the warm waters to the north of Australia. This air travels west along the equator over the Indian Ocean. It descends along the coast of Africa. In its neutral phase, the IOD does not affect Australian weather very much.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) refers to the (non-seasonal) north-south movement of the strong westerly winds that blow almost continuously in the mid- to high-latitudes of the southern hemisphere (ie south of Australia and South America). This belt of westerly winds is also associated with storms and cold fronts that move from west to east, bringing rainfall to southern Australia. It is currently positive and has been mostly positive since late-August. The effect the SAM has on rainfall varies greatly depending on season and region. The positive phase is correlated with increased chance of rainfall in southern Victoria, and in New South Wales.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an eastward moving pulse of cloud and rainfall near the equator. It travels around the globe every 30 to 60 days. MJO effects are most evident over the Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific. It influences the timing, development and strength of the major global monsoon patterns, including the Indian and Australian monsoons. As of the 29th of September, a pulse of the MJO cloud and rain was located in the Western Hemisphere. The MJO is very likely to move eastwards towards the Indian Ocean and weaken in the coming days. It may re-emerge in the Maritime Continent to the north of Australia in mid-October.

More information is available from the BoM’s website.

The Long Hot Continues

The long run of average global temperatures being above the climate target continued into its 13th month. All global initiatives are aimed at keeping average temperature rises below 1.5°C. That level was set to minimise impacts on the global economy and the environment.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports August 2024 was the equal-warmest August globally in the ERA5 dataset maintained by international initiatives. It tied with August 2023, with an average surface air temperature of 16.82°C.

According to ERA5 dataset, which provides hourly temperature data from 1940, August 2024 was 1.51°C above the pre-industrial level. This was the 13th month since July 2023 in which the global-average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

August 2024 was also 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average for August. It was the warmest global average temperature for the boreal (northern) summer on record, and Earth’s hottest August in NOAA’s 175-year climate record.

Europe and Oceania had their warmest August on record. Asia saw its second-warmest while Africa and North America each had their third-warmest August.

The June-August season was the Southern Hemisphere’s warmest winter on record at 0.96° C above average.

The US National Centres for Environmental Information (NCEI) agency concludes there is a 97% chance that 2024 will rank as the world’s warmest year on record.

The global extent of sea ice was the second-smallest in the 46-year record, at 8.32 million square miles. This is 1.05 million square miles below the 1991–2020 average. Arctic sea ice extent was below average, ranking fourth-lowest on record. The Antarctic sea ice extent was also below average, ranking second-lowest on record.

More information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration website.

Ongoing Progress in the Nature Repair Market Scheme

The Nature Repair Market scheme is a government initiative that provides incentives to restore and protect the environment. It was announced in 2023.

It is based on the model of the ACCUs Scheme. Farmers will be able to carry out approved activities that lead to nature-positive outcomes. After audit of the work and effects, a tradeable certificate would be issued.

These projects could include:

  1. Re-establishing vegetation along waterways,
  2. Keeping pests and feral species from destroying native species and ecosystems,
  3. Others as the scheme evolves.

The first method in development is the Replanting Native Forest and Woodland Ecosystems method. There is a draft of the method available for public comment. There is also a draft document about auditing.

In addition, work is being done on the trading mechanism.

The aspiration within government is to have an initial launch in 2025. It is realistic to consider that mechanisms like this are complex to establish. The experience in the Carbon Farming/ACCUs Scheme shows there can be delays in finalising the formalities. There can also be and changes to improve the process after launch.

More information is available at the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water website.

This article is intended to provide general information on a particular subject or subjects and is not an exhaustive treatment of such subject(s). The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable. Rural Bank, a Division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, ABN 11 068 049 178 AFSL/Australian Credit Licence 237879, makes no representation as to or accepts any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of information contained in this report. Any opinions, estimates and projections in this report do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Rural Bank and are subject to change without notice. Rural Bank has no obligation to update, modify or amend this article or to otherwise notify a recipient thereof in the event that any opinion, forecast or estimate set forth therein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. This article is provided for informational purposes only. The information contained in this article does not take into account your personal circumstances and should not be relied upon without consulting your legal, financial, tax or other appropriate professional.

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