Insights August 2024

Bureau on La Nina Watch, but just watching

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation index (ENSO) value is neutral. ENSO is the oscillation between El Niño and La Niña conditions. The idea of a watch shouldn’t be understood as indicating the probable outcome. It signals not enough basis to decide.

One key factor, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have been the warmest on record between April 2023 and June 2024. The models predict a cooling of SSTs in the central tropical Pacific. This general trend would support a change to La Nina. It’s still too early to know.

The Bureau recommends referring to the long-range forecasts. At the moment, the predictions for August to October are:

• Rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for much of Australia. This includes along the NSW coast.
• Wetter than average conditions are likely for parts of eastern and south-western Australia. It is likely to be drier than average in parts of WA.
• Warmer than average days and nights are likely to very likely across most of Australia. Periods of cold weather are still possible.

Climate Smart Assistance for Farm Businesses is on the way

The Australian Government has established a $302.1 million Climate-Smart Agriculture Program. It will run over five years starting from 2023-24. This program will support agricultural sustainability, productivity, and competitiveness. It is designed to deliver these outcomes:

• The agriculture sector is adopting practices to reduce emissions and build resilience to climate change.
• The agriculture sector is supported to harness carbon and biodiversity incentives and implement industry sustainability frameworks.
• Farmers are supported to drive agricultural growth while adopting sustainable natural resource management practices that protect and conserve natural capital and biodiversity.

Various organisations will play a role in bringing information to farm businesses. We anticipate that regional Natural Resources Management groups and Landcare will be prominent.

There will also be annual rounds of small grants.

The program will provide up to up to $13 million in funding over four years for on-ground projects. The projects should be led by community groups, Landcare groups, First Nations groups and research organisations.

These small grants will support the adoption of best-practice in climate-smart, sustainable agriculture. Such projects should:

• improve management of our natural resources,
• support response to climate change and
• increase on-farm productivity.

The second round will be advertised in 2025. Often these grants are announced in February – March. It is wise to know the criteria, make contact with intended partners in an application, and prepare the essential theme of the intended project. The time to prepare responses is often short. You can follow the development of the program here.

The Good News

In the climate sphere, there isn’t much that rates as entirely good news. Climate change has increased risk for businesses. It has also decreased the certainties that serve as foundations for prompt decision making. The stories below are cases of good news. None the less, there is still a long path ahead for these initiatives before they get beyond being ‘watch this space’ material.

Tasmanian dairy offers world-first Low Emissions Eco-Milk

The Tasmanian specialist dairy, Ashgrove, has begun offering low-emissions milk based on the use of a seaweed product from a Tasmanian environmental technology company. That company, Sea Forest, was a finalist in the 2023 Earthshot Prize.

Ashgrove Managing Director Richard Bennett champions this breakthrough as “… more than just another dairy product—it's a solution to a global challenge. We’re forging a more sustainable future by teaming up with Sea Forest, “

Ashgrove Eco-Milk™ is the world's first commercially available fresh milk produced with lower greenhouse gas emissions. The more difficult task will be to forge a partnership in the marketplace with customers willing to pay a premium for the product.

Extracting methane from emissions to use in fertilisers

One company looked at agricultural emissions of methane as an opportunity. Windfall Bio has developed a technology to turn diffuse methane emissions into nitrogenous fertiliser. Diffuse sources include air in dairy buildings, manure slurry pits, biogas installations, and coal mines. They recently registered as an Australian company.

In the process, methane-loving biology capture methane molecules from their environment, such as water through which the air is passed. The methane molecules are broken down into simpler carbon compounds. This breakdown provides energy for the biology to grow. Some of it is used to take nitrogen gas from the air. In the third step, nitrogen compounds are released by the biology to become valuable nutrients for other microorganisms in the soil. These include bacteria and fungi fostering surrounding plants to thrive. The product is a nitrogenous fertiliser.

A potential benefit is carbon credits due to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. There is currently no approved method, however some lateral thinking might get a method registered. The Clean Energy Regulator might accept it as an extension of the method relating to landfill. Detailed analysis and negotiations could open that possibility.

Depending on costs it could offer lower cost nitrogen fertiliser for some locations. There would be savings in freight. It suits a circumstance where there is a sufficient concentration of methane released, and that may not match locations using nitrogen fertiliser. Where it does, it is a convergence of good luck.

Carbon Extraction needs to Face Deeper Challenges than just Extraction

The extraction of carbon from flue gas and from the atmosphere by technological means is an important strategy for reducing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere. It could be a solution for industries like cement production. Such hard to abate industries lack technical solutions to reducing emissions. It is hoped that the very high cost per unit of carbon extracted by this technology can be reduced over time.

The Energy Council of Australia noted that: most credible international climate models, including the International Energy Agency and the International Panel on Climate Change suggest a significant amount of global carbon capture and storage (CCS) capability is required to achieve net zero targets, with the IEA saying it will be “virtually impossible” for countries like Australia to reach net zero by 2050 without the use of CCS.

Two challenges have arisen around the next steps with the captured carbon. A Senate committee inquired into a proposed CCS project in the Great Artesian Basin (GAB). It recommended that states and territories consider a legislated ban on CCS activities across the GAB. The Queensland Government announced plans to legislate a ban on CCS projects in the GAB in Queensland in May. In addition, existing undersea sequestration of carbon met technical issues that have nearly brought it to a stop. The injection of the carbon slurry into the rock does not suit all potential sites. Blockages develop.

On the face of it, CCS looks very promising. It can help solve the problem of reducing emissions where technology solutions are not yet mature. Scaling up is proving very difficult. We are at the beginning of a long journey that will take a lot of capital over a long time.