Insights June 2020
Insights June 2020
- Broccoli and cauliflower prices are expected to fall in coming months as increasing production catches up to demand following supply shortages.
- A decline in demand for limes driven by COVID-19 restrictions has coincided with an increase in supply resulting in softer prices.
- There are positive signs for orange prices this season as demand remains high in a stable supply environment.
Broccoli and cauliflower prices are expected to ease in the coming months as production on the east coast catches up to the supply shortage driven by drought, bushfires and COVID-19. Broccoli prices have almost returned to the long-term average of $2.14/kg after reaching a record high of $4.18/kg in March, while cauliflower prices have remained elevated. Good rainfall on the east coast has helped production rebound particularly in Victoria which accounts for 47 per cent of broccoli and 44 per cent of cauliflower grown nationally.
Queensland lime production has increased this season due to favourable seasonal conditions and an increase in the number of trees reaching maturity. The increase in supply has coincided with a fall in demand from the hospitality industry due to COVID-19 restrictions. Growers are having to leave fruit on trees for as long as possible to allow supply to move through the market. This can lead to fruit falling off the tree and going to waste. Price is currently trading well below the long-term average at decile 1.3. There may be a small improvement to prices over the coming months as COVID-19 restrictions lift however it's unlikely demand will return to long term levels this season.
Demand for early season navel oranges has been high, and current prices are 32.2 per cent higher than this time last year. Supply is expected to be down slightly on last season due to drought and high-water prices. Reports suggest early season fruit is of a reasonable size and eating quality is high. Consumers both domestically and overseas are prioritising fruit with immunity boosting properties which is leading to an increase in demand for oranges. Concerns around export interruptions have subsided in time for the peak supply months of July and August.
Source: Ausmarket and Hort Innovations
*Citrus price index includes oranges, mandarins, lemons and limes.