Sheep exports 2023-24

Sheep commodity overview

• The value of Australian sheep industry exports lifted $309.3 million (+6.5 per cent) in 2023-24 to a record total of $5.1 billion.
• Export value was driven higher by an influx of volume. Sheepmeat export volume was up 26.3 per cent, more than accounting for the decline in average unit price.
• Australian sheep industry exports are expected to be relatively stable in 2024-25 as reduced volume is paired with improved prices.

Trade performance in 2023-24

Australia’s sheep industry export value climbed $309.3 million (+6.5 per cent) to a record $5.1 billion in 2023-24. This exceeded the previous record year in 2021-22 by $182.7 million (+3.7 per cent). The increase in export value was driven mainly by a large increase in sheepmeat export volume, which rose 26.3 per cent from 2022-23. Slaughter rates were elevated due to the recent national flock rebuild and were further exacerbated by dry conditions pushing growers to destock throughout 2023. Sheep industry exports faced headwinds from tough economic conditions throughout 2023-24, which slowed demand for the food service industry and premium products. This saw the average sheepmeat export price fall 14.9 per cent to its lowest point since 2017-18.

Australian lamb export value grew to a record $3.6 billion in 2023-24, up $344.3 million (+10.7 per cent) from the previous year. Export value grew on the back of significant growth in export volume, which was up 27.6 per cent from a record in 2022-23. Export value was up despite the weakening of the average export price. Australia’s average lamb export unit price fell 13.2 per cent to $9,026/tonne in 2023-24. This marks the lowest price point since 2020-21 and a 19.1 per cent fall from the peak in 2021-22.

The value of Australia’s mutton exports was slightly lower in 2023-24, despite a significant uptick in volume. Mutton export value totalled $1.2 billion, down $6.6 million (-0.5 per cent) from 2022-23, but remained 1 per cent above the five-year average. Export volume strengthened year-on-year, lifting 24.2 per cent to 238,116 tonnes, the highest quantity on record. Average export price continued lower for a second consecutive year, falling 19.9 per cent to $5,246/tonne. This was 36.4 per cent down from the peak in 2021-22 and the lowest average price point since 2015-16.

Sheep skin export value firmed year-on-year, lifting $10.2 million (+4.8 per cent) to $225 million. This was driven by a 12.3 per cent increase in volume, although unit price fell 6.7 per cent from 2022-23. The unit price of sheep skins fell to its lowest point since 1999-00 and was 26.5 per cent below the five-year average. The price point for sheep skins faced downwards pressure from the influx of supply and tough economic conditions reducing demand for premium products.

The value of Australia’s live exports continued to soften for a fourth consecutive year, falling $38.7 million (-45.5 per cent) to $46.3 million. This was driven by both a reduction in volume (-25.1 per cent) and unit price (-27.3 per cent). The value of Australia’s live sheep export industry in 2023-24 was 57.2 per cent below the five-year average and was 82.1 per cent lower than 2017-18, the last year before restrictions were introduced.

Major export markets

The US returned as Australia’s highest value market for the sheep industry in 2023-24, after a brief fall to second place the year before. Export value totalled $1.2 billion, up $79.6 million (+6.9 per cent), to the second highest level on record. Export value to the US lifted on the back of growth in the lamb trade, which lifted $109.8 million (+10.6 per cent) to $1.1 billion. Although mutton exports softened for a second consecutive year, falling $30.2 million (-25.2 per cent) to $89.6 million.

China fell to second place for sheep industry export value in 2023-24, after regaining top spot briefly the previous year. Total export value fell $179.7 million (-14.1 per cent) to $1.1 billion, its lowest point since 2017-18. Lamb exports to China dropped $102.5 million (-19.3 per cent) year-on-year, while mutton exports fell $89.2 million (-16.2 per cent). Export value for sheep skins lifted $12.2 million (+6.3 per cent) but were not able to recover all the losses incurred the previous year.

The Middle East was the major growth market for Australian sheep industry exports in 2023-24. Total export value increased by $467.5 million (+64 per cent) to $1.2 billion. Growth in the region was driven by increases to Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. These three nations combined to make up 69 per cent of the growth to the Middle East. Iran returned as a major destination for Australian sheepmeat exports after several years of minimal exports. Export value jumped from $1.3 million to $180.6 million in 2023-24, seeing Iran rise from the 61st largest market to 7th largest. Growth from Iran was due to the importation of sheepmeat to relieve pressure on prices amid rising inflation and high local feed prices.

The value of Australia’s sheep industry exports to South Korea dropped in 2023-24 from a record the previous year. Export value fell $95 million (-29.1 per cent) to $231.9 million. This followed 10 consecutive years of growth. Fortunately, total export value remained 13 per cent above the five-year average and was the second highest value on record.

Outlook for 2024-25

Australia’s sheep industry export value is expected to be relatively steady in 2024-25. Lamb and mutton prices are expected to average higher across 2024-25, while export volumes are expected to soften as supply tightens. Last season saw increased supply following the national flock rebuild and high turn-off rates due to dry seasonal conditions. Lamb and mutton production throughout 2023-24 were up 18.7 per cent and 17.9 per cent respectively. Seasonal conditions have somewhat improved, which will slow the flow of sheepmeat through the system. The question remains as to whether export markets will be as receptive to Australian lamb at a higher price point. At this stage average export unit price has seen only a marginal increase compared to the significant strengthening in saleyard prices. Export value from skins is likely to remain subdued, as supply is forecast to slow and economic conditions will continue to restrict demand for premium products. The value of Australia’s live exports is also expected to continue to deteriorate. The phase out of live exports will see industry participants continue to move away from the trade, although the uptick in prices will offer some support.

Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

Source: GTA

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