Cattle exports 2023-24

Commodity Overview

• The value of Australian cattle industry exports increased $1.6 billion (+12.3 per cent) in 2023-24 to a record high of $14.7 billion.
• The primary driver of the increase in Australian beef export value was the increase of $1.4 billion (+72.1 per cent) to the US as reduced US production drove greater demand for Australian beef.
• Australian beef export value is forecast to increase again in 2024-25 as further growth in production combines with higher average prices supported by tight US supply.

Trade performance in 2023-24

Australia’s beef export value recorded significant growth in 2023-24, finishing at a record high of $14.68 billion. This exceeded the previous record which was set in 2019-20 by $368 million (+2.6 per cent). Frozen beef export value increased $926.9 million (+13.7 per cent) to $7.68 billion. Fresh and chilled beef export value also increased, up $811.5 million (+20.7 per cent) to $4.7 billion. Slaughter rates trended higher throughout 2023-24 on the back of recent years of herd rebuilding. This drove a 26.7 per cent increase in total beef export volume in 2023-24. A total of 1.3 million tonnes of beef exported was the second highest year on record behind 2014-15. While beef export volume rose, the average unit price of beef exports fell by 8.9 per cent. This followed two record years for prices. The average export price of beef in 2023-24 of $9,610/tonne was still 4.2 per cent above the five-year average. This price decline reflected weakness in local cattle prices with the average Eastern Young Cattle Indicator down 33 per cent in 2023-24.

An area of weakness for cattle industry exports in 2023-24 was a 24.6 per cent decline in the value of live cattle exports. Live cattle saw a decline in value for a fourth consecutive year. A decline of $1 billion (-53.7 per cent) over the last four years has seen value fall to $867.7 million in 2023-24. Unlike the previous years, value in 2023-24 was driven lower by weaker prices. The average price of live cattle fell 33.5 per cent which more than offset the 13.4 per cent increase in the number of cattle exported.

Major export markets

The US became Australia’s most valuable cattle industry export market in 2023-24, after being the fourth largest the year before. Export value totalled $3.4 billion, up $1.4 billion (+72.1 per cent), to the highest level on record. This surpassed the previous record which set in 2014-15 by 5.4 per cent. Growth to the US was driven by increased import demand resulting from reduced US production. A 3.5 per cent decline in US beef production in 2023-24 drove a 19.7 per cent increase in US beef imports. Australia was able to capture a large share of this increased demand. The volume of Australian beef exports to the US nearly doubled in 2023-24, up 96.8 per cent. Frozen beef saw a greater level of growth with a 104 per cent increase in volume. Chilled beef saw a lesser but still strong rise of 78.9 per cent. Reduced US production also led to an 11 per cent decline in US beef exports in 2023-24 which helped reduce competition for Australian beef in other markets.

China fell to second place for cattle industry export value in 2023-24, after finishing as the largest trading partner for the previous two years. China was also the only market in the top 10 which recorded a decline in export value in 2023-24. Total export value fell $250 million (-8.6 per cent) to $2.7 billion, the lowest value since 2021-22. Frozen beef exports led this decline with a fall of $182.7 million (-9.9 per cent). Encouragingly, chilled beef exports saw a rise of $115.9 million (+26.1 per cent). Export value to China recorded a downwards shift due to a softening of demand for imports. This came from a renewed focus on growing their domestic production. Suspensions on several Australian abattoirs exporting to China were also in place for the majority of 2023-24, also limiting export volumes. However, in May 2024 China removed suspension on the majority of those processing centres. Live cattle exports also dropped $266.4 million (72 per cent) to $103.4 million.

Export value to Japan totalled $2.3 billion in 2023-24, a minor increase of $36.1 million (+1.6 per cent) from the year before. Japan slipped to be Australia’s third largest market in 2023-24, after being the second largest in 2022-23 and 2021-22. Moderate growth in export value of chilled beef outweighed a fall in frozen beef. Export value of frozen beef declined $99.2 million (-10.2 per cent), whilst there was moderate growth of $111.6 million (+11.5 per cent) in chilled beef. Whilst total export value for Japan moved higher throughout the past year, 2023-24 remains 6.7 per cent below the five-year average of $2.4 billion.

Stability in export value to South Korea continued in 2023-24, in line with the previous two years. Export value recorded a modest increase of $9.9 million (+0.5 per cent), finishing at $2.1 billion. Despite minimal growth throughout the past three years, export value remained 16.5 per cent above the five-year average. Export value to South Korea remained mostly stable due to the increase in their domestic production and the reduction in US supply on global markets, enticing imports from Australia keeping the value stable.

Nine of Australia’s top ten markets recorded an increase in export value during 2023-24. Exports to Vietnam recorded strong growth of $127.6 million (+40.7 per cent) to $440.9 million. Meanwhile value to Indonesia remained mostly stable, lifting a modest $9.6 million (+0.9 per cent) as volatile export volumes in early 2024 due to licence import issues. Canada was the second largest growth market in 2023-24 behind the US. Export value to Canada more than doubled, up $152.7 million (+125.9 per cent) in 2023-24. This saw Canada rise to be Australia 8th largest export market, up from 15th in 2022-23.

Outlook for 2024-25

Australian cattle industry export value is expected to increase again in 2024-25. Further growth in Australian beef production is expected to provide additional beef for export. This will be supported by ongoing firm demand driven by ongoing tight US production. Increased US imports and reduced export will assist demand for Australian beef on global markets. Australian cattle prices have recovered from the lows seen in October 2023. With cattle prices expected to find some stability around current values, will translate into a lift in average export price for beef in 2024-25. This will in turn boost export value. Export value to the US is likely to continue lifting, however this is expected be offset by marginal falls in South Korea and Japan. The forecast lift in domestic production in South Korea and Japan is likely to limit strong growth in value for 2024-25. Australia’s beef export value to China is forecast to be marginally softer throughout 2024-25 as ongoing economic challenges within China will limit strong demand for Australian beef.

Source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA)

Source: GTA

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