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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

Categories: General, General

A very big week for central banks as the Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve and Bank of England all scheduled to meet, with the market expecting all to keep monetary policy on hold.

The RBA also meets this week and, although history shows the RBA has a knack of moving rates on Melbourne Cup day, the market expects no change to the cash rate, although an easing bias will be retained and the accompanying statement is likely to be broadly unchanged from last month.

US Election update
Most pundits suggest Hillary Clinton gained the edge over Donald Trump in the final debate just over a week ago. That said, recent polling suggests Clinton’s lead over Trump had narrowed over the past week. The national poll average – as calculated by Real Clear Politics – fell from 7 points on 17 October to 4.7 points on 26 October.

While current polling implies an 85% probability that Hillary Clinton will be the next US President (or alternatively, that Trump’s chances are about 15%), there is still a high proportion of undecided voters (15%) suggesting that polling in the run-up to the election could still be volatile.

The Trump vs Clinton Latest Poll

Clinton and Trump Polling average

This was clear over the weekend when the gap narrowed once again due to the latest email scandal where the FBI has announced it will re-open investigations into Clinton’s private emails. An ABC/Washington Post poll released on Sunday scores decided voters only 46/45 for Clinton. But a week in politics is a long time and we have two weeks until the US election.

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Source: Rural Bank


Disclaimer: Whilst all care has been taken in compiling the information, the information should not be relied upon as substitute for professional advice where necessary. Rural Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information and disclaims all liability in relation to any loss or damage suffered by the use of or reliance upon any information contained herein or in any attachment or annexure hereto by any person. Rural Bank – A Division of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited ABN 11 068 049 178 AFSL 237879